Which direction is the RL global economy headed in the next

[musashi]

I really enjoy asking this question of the people I meet.

Right away you can tell if they are a “glass half empty” sort or a “glass half full” sort. And it flushes out the economic fence sitters. It seems like every time I ask this question I learn something new.

So what do you say….

Which direction is the RL global economy headed in the next five years and why?

[Grake]

Well with China and India growing in excess of 9% per annum and other developed countries chugging along in 1-3% range, I think it would be closer to 5% than to 2%. Also, as far as I've been hearing volume of trade has been increasing one example being textile barrifs to Chinese imports having been lifted lately in the US, but now US trying to place quotas because they're too cheap. Anyways, that's just a very short discussion on my opinion.

Btw how do you determine your average, weighted average based on population of each country or just a simple average?

[musashi]

Well Grake you've taken a GDP approach towards describing the global economy - nothing wrong with that.

How does your vision appear if you describe the global economy in “per capita GDP?” Do the economies grow fast enough to cover all that population growth?

[Grake]

Well, from what I've been learning the western economies can employ the vast majority and same with the developing ones to some extent.

There are a lot of countries that live in poverty, of course. But I think over the course of time, these will become more integrated into the global economy as trade markets expand. However, that will still take time.

Of course, it's not only a question of simple employment of the population. You have to employ them effectively which is a much harder problem to address.

Well, I've got many years of study ahead of me to get a better grasp of such economic issues.

How do you think the world will look in the future? Less poverty or more? More conflict over such resources as water? What is going to replace oil? The questions are endless

[DagnyTaggart]

global economy??





I care deeply for everyone in this world. I never cease wondering if we all as collective humans are going to do better or not in this world.





sry musashi heh, im just finding it hard to get riled up and thoroughly analyze the global economy.... even in a great depression, individuals of power can still make something for themselves.

[musashi]

sry musashi heh, im just finding it hard to get riled up and thoroughly analyze the global economy.... even in a great depression, individuals of power can still make something for themselves.

Absolutely DT, history shows that some of the greatest fortunes are actually amassed during times of depression. I think about all of the US robber barons.

Well, I've got many years of study ahead of me to get a better grasp of such economic issues.

How do you think the world will look in the future? Less poverty or more? More conflict over such resources as water? What is going to replace oil? The questions are endless

You have a lifetime to explore and study economics Grake, and in the end one lifetime may not be enough. We can all only hope to gain a larger grasp by parts. But those small insights, just might give you the slightest advantage in the competitive global economy.

I like to think about it like a coin flip… everyone has a 50/50 chance of predicting the coin flip. To get rich you do not have to predict the out come accurately 100% of the time. All you need is to shift your predictive abilities off center. I’d pay a million dollars US if I could exclusively predict the outcome 51/49!

The global economy is fun for me to think about precisely because of the factors you’ve mentioned and more… What about the building surplus of US dollars in exporting countries and companies? What about the instability of pension systems worldwide? The global economy is truly a Gordian Knot for all of us to play with.