Thanks. I looked into this report.
IPCC is a group that works for UN. Hmm. I already have a problem. UN is an immoral institution to start with, since it included mass murdering countries like USSR without any problems.
Can you please explain to me the logical reasoning of the above? An institution is immoral because one of its members is immoral? Judging the entire group by the actions of one individual?
That institution also happened to be started under the auspicies of the United States. Does that automatically mean the US is immoral, by association? What principle of logical reasoning justifies your statement?
But, as I said, facts are facts regardless who made them.
I'm glad that you recognize the above, which makes your next set of statements worthy of a head explosion.
Here's an interesting part:
Political influence on the IPCC has been documented by the release of a memo by ExxonMobil to the Bush administration, and its effects on the IPCC's leadership. The memo led to strong Bush administration lobbying, evidently at the behest of ExxonMobil, to oust Robert Watson, one of the world's leading climate scientists, from the IPCC chairmanship, and to have him replaced by Pachauri, who was seen at the time as more mild-mannered and industry-friendly.
That's scary stuff. So, governments can "oust" scientists from the IPCC group and essentially control who gets to be on the IPCC?
Oh, man, there is so much crap around this business. There is no way I'm going to trust IPCC that is controlled by UN and governments around the world.
This is simply not science.
[I intentially left out the 'Hockey Stick quote' for later]
So you state that the important things are the facts, not who made them. Your immediate followup quote was to attack the institution of the IPCC, instead of addressing the global warming report itself.
Do you not see the obvious contradiction there?
Worse yet, your reasoning is atrocious - Company A attempts to use inappropriate political pull to influence State B into change the makeup of a non-government panel of scientists C, in order to specifically change the leader of C to someone more 'industry-friendly' to Company A's position on what should be a neutral study.
Your conclusion: C is evil.
Not Company A, the one using the aristocracy of pull. Not State B for allowing Company A to try to lobby them, but _C_ the non-governmental panel....
THAT'Syour villian. That's the one whose facts you won't address.
Don't serious Objectivists believe you fault the one making the inappropriate attempt to pull, not the victim of it? Or do you have some other quotation from the non-fiction on Objectivism I have missed? How do you justify the train of logic above?
Ignoring your demonstratably ad hominen attacks above, the only 'legitimate' concern you raise about the report itself is the so-called 'Hockey-Stick' controversy, a buzz-word with global climate change deniers. I say 'so-called' deliberately, because it isn't a controversy to anyone who understands applied statistical analysis.
The entire question boils down to the following: Using a series of know data points, construct a mathematical function whose value over time approximates these points at appropriate times, and extrapolates their value into the future.
It's exactly the same mathematical analysis used to study stock prices, chemical reactions, and a variety of other natural phenomenon. The mathematics for approximating functions operates under a very strict set of axioms, but there are several slightly different methods to go about it, each with their own assessment of error values, boundary conditions, etc.
The point of the analysis is to come up with a predictive model of which can be tested against the actual change over time of a phenomenon. If the observed values over time fall within the error margins of the function, then the predictive model is good. If they do not, then the predictive model has a fault and must be re-examined.
In the IPCC report, the predictive model is change in global average tempurature over time (I believe the wikipedia portion you quoted is for the North American prediction to be precise, similar graphs exist for other reports studying climate change in different portions of the world). An argument arose over whether the inital function suggested by one research group was adequately constructed using proper mathematical modelling. Most specifically, the interest is in the error margins of the function, related to the reliability of climate data points from the Middle Ages.
What you apparently did not take away from the very URL you sighted is that the 'controversy' does not, in fact, revolve around the shape of the climate modeling function itself - but on the assessment of the error bars due to the earliest data point collection. Adjusting the error bars does not change the shape of the function itself, only the spread. The test of the function, as a climate model, lies in its ability to accurately predict the change in global average tempurature over time. For the last ten years, the climate model has been accurate well within its error margin.
The idea that there is something wrong with the function itself is a piece of commonly believe _propoganda_, not a mathematical or scientific fact. It was spread by those who have a specific agenda in distorting actual science for their personal gain. If you look at the experiments for discerning _actual_ global tempurature data, and apply good old fashioned bias-blind mathematical principles to it, the resulting mathematical prediction is inescapable. Like all scientific theories, it may eventually fall out of line with real observation, but so far it hasn't. That is what science calls a 'working theory'. And it is why global climate change is a scientific concensus by the majority of the world's researchers.
AT