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The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Wed Feb 25, 2009 7:21 pm
by musashi
Keith Lockitch, PhD in physics, is a fellow at the Ayn Rand Center for Individual Rights, focusing on science and environmentalism wrote:
Will a green energy industry be an engine of economic growth? Many want us to think so, including our new President. Apparently a booming green economy with millions of new jobs is just around the corner. All we need is the right mix of government “incentives.”

These include a huge (de facto) tax on carbon emissions imposed through a cap-and-trade regulatory scheme, as well as huge government subsidies for “renewable,” carbon-free sources. The hope is that these government sticks and carrots will turn today’s pitiful “green energy” industry, which produces an insignificant fraction of American energy, into a source of abundant, affordable energy that can replace today’s fossil-fuel-dominated industry.

This view is a fantasy--one that could devastate America’s economy. The reality is that “green energy” is at best a sophisticated make-work program.

There is a reason why less than 2 percent of the world’s energy currently comes from “renewable” sources such as wind and solar--the very sources that are supposedly going to power the new green economy: despite billions of dollars in government subsidies, funding decades of research, they have not proven themselves to be practical sources of energy. Indeed, without government mandates forcing their adoption in most Western countries, their high cost would make them even less prevalent.

Consider that it takes about 1,000 wind turbines, occupying tens of thousands of acres, to produce as much electricity as just one medium-sized, coal-fired power plant. And that’s if the wind is blowing: the intermittency of wind wreaks havoc on electricity grids, which need a stable flow of power, thus requiring expensive, redundant backup capacity or an unbuilt, unproven “smart grid.”

Or consider the “promise” of solar. Two projects in development will cover 12.5 square miles of central California with solar cells in the hope of generating about 800 megawatts of power (as much as one large coal-fired plant). But that power output will only be achieved when the sun is shining brightly--around noon on sunny days; the actual output will be less than a third that amount. And the electricity will cost more than market price, even with the life-support of federal subsidies that keeps the solar industry going. The major factor driving the project is not the promise of abundant power but California’s state quota requiring 20 percent “renewable” electricity by 2010.

More than 81 percent of world energy comes from fossil fuels, and half of America’s electricity is generated by burning coal. Carbon sources are literally keeping us alive. There is no evidence that they have--or will soon have--a viable replacement in transportation fuel, and there is only one in electricity generation, nuclear, which “green energy” advocates also oppose.

We all saw the ripple effects last summer when gas prices shot above $4 per gallon, and higher transportation costs drove up prices of everything from plane fares to vegetables. If green policies cause a permanent, and likely far greater, hike in the cost of all forms of energy, what shockwaves would that send through our already badly damaged economy?

We don’t want to find out.

Regardless of one’s views on global warming--and there is ample scientific evidence to reject the claim that manmade carbon emissions are causing catastrophe--the fact is that kneecapping the fossil fuel industry while diverting tax dollars into expensive, impractical forms of energy will not be an economic boon, but an economic disaster.

We in developed countries take industrial-scale energy for granted and often fail to appreciate its crucial value to our lives--including its indispensable role in enabling us to deal with drought, storms, temperature extremes, and other climate challenges we are told to fear by global-warming alarmists.

If we want to restore economic growth and reduce our vulnerability to the elements, what we need is not “green energy” forced upon us by government coercion but real energy delivered on a free market.
Having gone green myself. I did not see the situation in quite the same light as Keith.

I for one saw pure market forces at work behind the spike in oil prices in the summer of 2008. To me it appeared that market speculators created an artificial demand for oil futures contracts, a demand many times greater than baseline usage. These investors created this demand because they believed oil was scarce, and that these contracts would be worth more than the inflated prices they were paying. Obviously the investors miscalculated and a glut was created (interesting aside I believe this glut became a deflationary trigger on commodities – but that is a whole different conversation). But even if the market timing was miscalculated the underlying logic is sound – petroleum reserves are finite. At some future point demand will greatly exceed supply and then prices will skyrocket.

In this “beyond peak-oil” scenario the added cost of today’s renewable energy sources begin to make sense. The system I purchased does not breakeven at today’s energy prices and today’s cost of capital. My gamble was that in the future the cost of energy will be higher and that the cost of capital will remain low. In that scenario, renewable energy begins to make sense.

But there is another issue that I think Keith is missing. Massive markets, like the energy market, do not turn on a dime. You can’t run out of petroleum one day, and run your car from a windmill the next. The development cycle for alternate energy sources is deep and long. In a purely free market where maximization of owner’s equity is the main concern. How can the development of alternatives be seen as anything other than a competitive idea to be suppressed in deference to maximizing short term profits?

I have trouble imagining how a purely free market, without government subsidies, avoids this future train wreck. What do you think?

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Wed Feb 25, 2009 8:10 pm
by Riprion
Well, we won't run out of oil in a day. The price of oil will steadily increase as supplies diminish and demand increases. Of course thats talking about the trend. There will be peaks and valleys within that. During the last spike, I think we saw what will happen. As the price of oil climbed ever higher, so too did the price of solar stocks. This raised the capital needed to spur innovation. Of course alot of the companies were crap and they are gone now, but Sunpower is still around and I'm sure they benefited greatly. The US is now the largest producer of windpower in the world because of the spike. That doesn't just go away. The problem with government intervention is that they choose what they think is going to be best, like ethanol, instead of letting the market figure it out on its own. If the government had been subsidizing all those fly-by-night solar companies they would still be around sucking up resources that should be going to better companies. And with regards to ethanol, I think the world poor are very happy about not being able to afford food.

Ok, I have plenty to say about this, but I'm done typing for now.

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Wed Feb 25, 2009 9:31 pm
by musashi
Riprion wrote:The problem with government intervention is that they choose what they think is going to be best, like ethanol, instead of letting the market figure it out on its own.
You are right, in pointing out that previous government subsidies and regulations have not always pushed society towards the best solution. But there have been successes too.

How about the Federal Aid Highway Act of 1956? That gave the US a network of roads that supported a great deal of underlying commerce.

Or the Communications Act of 1934? That helped define a landscape for the incredible impact communications has had on the economy.

I don’t mean to dismiss the massive history of private industry, creative individuals and markets in creating new and great technology, but it seems that government has a role to play. As flawed as Government’s record has been (and the flaws are plentiful) it would appear that there are plenty of examples where government created a framework for the future creative success of individuals.

BTW I don’t like the ethanol option either, for many reasons.
Riprion wrote:The price of oil will steadily increase as supplies diminish and demand increases.
I think this is the pattern of a non-resource constrained economy. In a resource constrained economy, particularly one with arithmetically growing demand (from rapidly growing large markets like China and India) I think we’d see precipitous price changes. Everyone will be happily sitting in a circle around the fire singing Cumbya until the oil runs down. But when there is not enough oil to go around, I think a different psychology comes to the surface. It seams like in a resource constrained market - price would follow a "hockey stick" shaped curve.

I’ve seen this type of price pattern before, when the US began to constrain the supply of cocaine with the war on drugs. The price of cocaine skyrocketed. Don’t ask me how I know, but I know – at one point the stuff was so cheap they put the stuff in soft drinks.

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 10:28 am
by Athre
I wont get too deep into the topic but lets say if "big brother" had not stopped their own research and had not killed/threatened those who made small breakthroughs, we'd already be in vehicles that only required oil to grease the ball barrings.

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 1:07 pm
by Riprion
As far as the price of oil is concerned, I didn't say the price movements would not be volatile, commodities usually are. I would also agree that there is room for exponentiality, but that too would be translated into alternative investments. The other issue is that there are a lot of petroleum deposits out there that aren't economically viable to extract, yet. As the price goes up new deposits are brought into play, as well as technological advancements (often overlooked by peak oil and AGW doomsayers) that bring new efficiencies to the market.

All in all, I think the government has a pretty bad track record with alternative energy implementation. The area in which government could belong is in fundamental science. The ROI on science is incredibly long term and corporations generally can't plan that far out. Also, the government money in science seems far more fluid than in big power plant projects. If the theories aren't panning out, the money gets pulled and placed somewhere else, but with big projects, you have congresspeople fighting tooth and nail so that the big cash cow doesn't leave their district regardless of whether it is feasible or not.

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 3:05 pm
by Shar Tegral
Hmmm, reading this thread makes me feel insignificant. I'm going to have to toss a kitten into the oven to feel better about myself.

All joking aside, government is often as good as corporations when it comes down to track records. Only difference, imho, is that in government you get your position by how many people you fool whereas with most corps it's how many managers you fool. Guess to get ahead in government you have to be a better volume liar. (There's my nod to gov't hatred.)

Free markets are good at coming up with solutions however those self same markets are good at squashing competition. Doesn't matter if the competing product is better, smarter, and/or more responsible. Entrenchment brings with it a lot of power, of all kinds. I'm sure we can all agree that those who are entrenched are likely maximizing personal profits by not researching alternatives to their current cash crop.

So, government can be a counter force to entrenchment, the seeker of fantasy solutions where the free market would only go if someone else makes it work, just to steal market share.

My dislike for gov't is usually in the way that politicians, who are supremely uneducated on anything but politics, feel the need to pontificate on science/industry matters that is usually way above their heads and distinctly way above their knowledge. It leads to a delusional state from which they govern and often enough govern badly. It is, in fact, why they govern so badly so routinely. However that does not mean they, as a group, can not come up with the right answer needed at the right time. I always content that being dump and being right is not mutually exclusive.

And that's my perspective on gov't, they're dumb just sometimes they get the right answer in spite of it.

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 3:07 pm
by Shar Tegral
Oh and the poll above is missing my choice:

I don't care who brings about the change, just as long as there is change.

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 5:39 pm
by musashi
Athre wrote:I wont get too deep into the topic but lets say if "big brother" had not stopped their own research and had not killed/threatened those who made small breakthroughs, we'd already be in vehicles that only required oil to grease the ball barrings.
Who is big brother in the scenario? US, European or Asian governments? The government of oil producing countries? The big auto companies? The oil companies?

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 8:56 pm
by Riprion
The other issue that I think would warrant government intervention deals with the nature of CO2. If CO2 is a pollutant than there is a cost that needs to be associated with its emission. You can't simply dump sewage on my property and get away with it. The same would hold true for the air above my property. Of course this is a far more nuanced issue since the air is more of a communal good, and you have to deal with other countries. I think a carbon tax could be appropriate as it would be far more transparent than a cap and trade system. Cap and trade was a total failure in Europe. A carbon tax could also be levied on other countries without a carbon tax in the form of tariffs. (i can't believe i just wrote that. i just threw up a little in my mouth). Once that externality is eliminated the free market should move fairly agressively to find low carbon alterniatives, although they would probably move agressively to lobby for subsidies to offset the loss.

Oh and lets not forget that many corporations aren't really friends of the free market even though they say they are. They typically are more than willing to use to force of government in order to gain advantage over the competition. Most big corporations would prefer fascism or corporatism instead of the free market as long as they have the politicians in thier pockets.

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Fri Feb 27, 2009 10:55 am
by musashi
Riprion wrote:You can't simply dump sewage on my property and get away with it.
Exactly! And this brings up some of my past questions about property. If I buy a barrel of oil – it is my property. Presumably captured within the purchase price I paid - the free market accounts for ALL the costs associated with that oil. But oil is different than land – it is consumed and destroyed. Does the market price really capture and fully reflect the incremental reduction of my barrel upon the finite oil supply?

This seems like a trivial question, when considering a single barrel of oil. But it is a HUGE generational question. Our generation is depleting a resource, future generations will not have the resource. Has their demand for the resource been factored into the price of oil? And what about the generation after them?

This is “prior appropriation” aspect of non-durable property (IMO) does not seem to work? If there is one barrel of oil left in the whole wide world. AND you and I both want it. How can your right to the barrel be greater than mine, based solely on the fact that you consumed the previous barrel of oil?
Riprion wrote: A carbon tax could also be levied on other countries without a carbon tax in the form of tariffs. (I can't believe I just wrote that. I just threw up a little in my mouth).
:lol: Too funny :lol: .
But this is another great question about comity. Each nation creates its own laws. The laws of one nation may be vital (Say a law that protects individual human rights), and yet another nation may gain a competitive advantage by the absence of these laws. Tariffs are one mechanism countries use level trade relations. What other ways could the world address or compensate for these international differences?

The simplistic and untenable answer would be the abolishment of national governments and creation of a global government. (and now it is my time to say “I can't believe I just wrote that. I just threw up a little in my mouth”.)

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Fri Feb 27, 2009 1:22 pm
by Riprion
This seems like a trivial question, when considering a single barrel of oil. But it is a HUGE generational question. Our generation is depleting a resource, future generations will not have the resource. Has their demand for the resource been factored into the price of oil? And what about the generation after them?
Who is going to determine that future demand? The futures market is already very speculative and risky, and thats only 3 months out. How would future demand be factored into price if it can't be determined in the marketplace, government fiat? I can't think of an instance of government price control that wasn't disastrous. To determine what the demand will be 40-50 years out is an attempt to know the unknowable. This is by definition impossible. In the early 20th century, natural rubber was a hot commodity. Sure it was sustainable, but finite nonetheless. Had anyone tried to predict what the demand for natural rubber was in the future based on the current levels of consumption they would have been horribily wrong. How could they have predicted that Germany would start a World War which would cut them off from their supply of natural rubber necessitating the invention of synthetic rubber? This would have been completely unknowable as is the demand for oil 50-100 years from now. Even moreso in an era of exponentially advancing science.

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Fri Feb 27, 2009 1:55 pm
by Riprion
This is “prior appropriation” aspect of non-durable property (IMO) does not seem to work? If there is one barrel of oil left in the whole wide world. AND you and I both want it. How can your right to the barrel be greater than mine, based solely on the fact that you consumed the previous barrel of oil?
I'm not exactly sure what you mean here. Is this prior appropriation in the sense of, "I found the oil therefore I own the oil and I can do with it what I please"? If you find the oil and bring it to market, it is your property. You performed that labor to bring it up. I have no claim on that. Just because you sold it to me last month doesn't mean you have to sell it to me this month if Shar offers more money.

Now the other way prior appropriation gets applied to oil is in the notion of CO2 emmisions. This is really more of a "prior disappropriation". As it allows for the emission of pollution or the product of comsumption. This is a load of crap if CO2 is pollution. It amounts to "tough shit I have been dumping arsenic on your land for twenty years and I'm going to do it forever"

Riprion washes Mushashi's mouth out with soap for even uttering the words global and government in the same breath

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Fri Feb 27, 2009 2:26 pm
by Petyr Baelich
I think you're all on the wrong track here. You're concentrating on the problems you see with the mixed economy model of today's governments.

[*]There is absolutely nothing wrong with a global government, infact a global government is the ideal; provided that government is just and moral.

By just and moral I mean it consists of 3 branches only: Military, Police, and Courts. Everything that follows rests on the assumption of a strong, just government as a concrete, and the existence of a free market.

A free market solves all other problems by its very nature. Industry is polluting the air to the point where it becomes detrimental to the health of humans? New industry rises to find solutions to that pollution, (it has now become profitable to do so... people will freely pay without being forced to do so by paying taxes in order to prolong their lives and their quality of life). Old industry adapts to become less polluting, or branches out into the now-profitable pollution cleanup market sectors.

There is no place for government regulation in the economy. There is no government flunky to lobby in order to mitigate your carbon tax, (there is no carbon tax other than the fact that you business is now less profitable because people are paying the guy who pollutes less, or cleans up that pollution). Wow, look at that... self interest saves the day. Amazing. Government involvement in the economy is DEATH. Say it again. This is a truism. ALL government that does not involve protecting the basic human rights of its component individuals is WRONG and EVIL. Government has no place in improving your quality of life. That responsibility resides within yourself. Government exists to punish or prevent people from detracting from your quality of life, and that's it.

I do not advocate anarchy by any means. Government has its place, and it is a good thing, when properly applied. To say that a coal-fired power plant is bad because it pollutes your property with CO2 is utter bullshit if you're also paying that power company to provide power. You're making a free choice here! You CONSENT to their pollution of your property in exchange for the ability to power your house with electricity. If you feel that's a bad trade, stop paying them. Build windmills outside your home, install solar panels on the roof, dig a hole 500m deep in your backyard and use geothermal energy to heat your water. Or build your own, cleaner-running power plant and provide a better service for your neighbors and yourself and profit by it! The only reason we do not have 0-emission power plants today is the fact that our current form government has the power to regulate private industry. Therefore environmental groups are able to lobby the government to block nuclear power plants which are head-and-shoulders above fossil fuels in terms of efficiency and pollution. Worried about nuclear waste polluting our water supplies and private property? For one thing, the waste produced by a modern nuclear plant is laughable when compared to fossil fuels, AND it has important uses in other industries. There's a reason the Navy uses nuclear power almost exclusively in its warships. It's better. Secondly, when it becomes profitable to clean up/recycle/use nuclear waste in a free market, then industry will step up and provide that service.

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Fri Feb 27, 2009 4:11 pm
by musashi
Riprion wrote:I'm not exactly sure what you mean here. Is this prior appropriation in the sense of, "I found the oil therefore I own the oil and I can do with it what I please?"
That is correct “prior appropriation” is the main way current legal systems cope with ownership of a natural resource. You can see the evolution of the legal concept perhaps best in riparian water rights.

For instance there is a stream of water situated in the total and complete wilderness (no one has a claim of ownership on any of the land touching its banks.) You come along and establish the first claim to part of the land along its bank. You begin and continue use 100% of the water from the stream. 100% of the water in the stream belongs to you for as long as you continue to use it(unless you are an aborigine – then you get nothing).

Anyone that comes along after you and acquires any of the remaining parcels of land is SOL in their rights to the water (even if they buy the land up stream from your property.)

The legal nuances get deep very quickly, and there is a huge amount of case law history around riparian rights. A simplification would be finder’s keepers, later’s weepersagain unless the finder is an Indian.

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Fri Feb 27, 2009 4:35 pm
by musashi
Riprion wrote:Who is going to determine that future demand? The futures market is already very speculative and risky, and that’s only 3 months out. How would future demand be factored into price if it can't be determined in the marketplace?
Excellent point indeed!
We chant the mantra “In free markets we trust.” And yet in this situation the free market does not appear capable of answering some really big questions. To me it appears that the free market is pushing us towards the;
  • Who the heck needs perpetually sustainable energy, burn the candle at both ends and the party is over when it is gone answer to the question.
Oh we hope that man's ingenuity will deliver us from disaster one more time (just as it did with synthetic rubber). But as a Chemist, I suggest that figuring out what to do after the oil is gone is a very, very hard problem to solve. In my opinion there is a high probability ingenuity does not pull our bacon out of this fire.

Agreed government fiat would be sub-optimal. However it appears that government would have a longer perspective than the free market in this instance. We have examples right now. Governments around the world set aside lands as wilderness preserves. We recognize limited value from these preserves here and now. If in the future all the resources are consumed outside these preserves, then those preserves become our legacy.

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Fri Feb 27, 2009 4:59 pm
by musashi
Petyr Baelich wrote:There is absolutely nothing wrong with a global government, in fact a global government is the ideal; provided that government is just and moral..
As I reflected, I think Ayn Rand agreed with you on this point.
In Atlas Shrugged she allowed the governments of the world to fail, and then John Galt delivered his ultimatum, “Follow me or live like wild beasts.” In a sense John Galt put himself forward as a hegemon.

Unfortunately in Atlas, the world did not take John’s offer, so we did not get the chance to learn Ayn Rand’s vision of the Objectivist utopia. Ah the questions we have…
Petyr Baelich wrote:To say that a coal-fired power plant is bad because it pollutes your property with CO2 is utter bullshit if you're also paying that power company to provide power. You're making a free choice here! You CONSENT to their pollution of your property in exchange for the ability to power your house with electricity. If you feel that's a bad trade, stop paying them.
As I wrote earlier Petyr – I’ve done what you suggest. I’ve gone solar. So now, the social contract is one-sided.
  • Can I call the power plant and tell them to stop giving me CO2? Nope.
    Can I claim the high moral ground and say stop using every bit of the fossil fuels, save some for future generations? No because that would be a market constraint.
    Can we avoid the calamity that awaits us in the “beyond peak-oil” world?

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Fri Feb 27, 2009 6:01 pm
by Riprion
[*]There is absolutely nothing wrong with a global government, infact a global government is the ideal; provided that government is just and moral.
I disagree. I believe the ideal would be many just and moral governments. I don't see the benefit of granting a monopoly on goverance. You eliminate the option of emmigration if you don't like the governance of your current state. A global government, even if it was created as a moral ideal, would inexorably slide away from that ideal toward tyranny. The only option left at that point is civil war, the creation of choice in a governance marketplace. The only reason I see for limiting it a single global state that is moral and just, is because it is so damned impossible to create one just and moral government let alone 5 or 6.
To say that a coal-fired power plant is bad because it pollutes your property with CO2 is utter bullshit if you're also paying that power company to provide power. You're making a free choice here! You CONSENT to their pollution of your property in exchange for the ability to power your house with electricity. If you feel that's a bad trade, stop paying them. Build windmills outside your home, install solar panels on the roof, dig a hole 500m deep in your backyard and use geothermal energy to heat your water.
The problem is that air is a public good. Mushashi does not have free choice here. His property gets polluted with CO2 whether he buys electricity from the utility company or not. Of course, this assumes that CO2 is a pollutant. I think that question is difficult and quite problematic.
The only reason we do not have 0-emission power plants today is the fact that our current form government has the power to regulate private industry. Therefore environmental groups are able to lobby the government to block nuclear power plants which are head-and-shoulders above fossil fuels in terms of efficiency and pollution.
Actually, I think the reason we don't have zero-emission power plants today is because coal is cheap as shit. Of course this again brings up the issue of CO2 as pollution. In which case CO2 emission is an externality that needs to be internalized. This would raise the cost of using coal as an energy source and allow other sources to compete economically. Nuclear is still more expensive that coal regardless of the environmentalists being a total PITA.
There's a reason the Navy uses nuclear power almost exclusively in its warships
Yeah, they are small and don't require frequent refilling or oxygen.
Anyone that comes along after you and acquires any of the remaining parcels of land is SOL in their rights to the water (even if they buy the land up stream from your property.)
I come along and take up the water rights. Someone else comes along and now there is a dispute between two people over a commodity. This is all taking place in the present. It is not between me and someone who doesn't even exist yet, which is the basis of the future generations argument. An entity that doesn't exist cannot have rights. They are an idea, not a person. This is why I don't think a prior appropriations argument applies in this context. Of course, the problem with eliminating prior appropriations in the context of water is that someone could decide to buy the property that is the source of the Mississippi and screw people that have been making a living on the river their entire lives. (Ok maybe not that simple considering the Ohio and Missouri Rivers but w/e)

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Fri Feb 27, 2009 7:37 pm
by musashi
Riprion wrote:
Petyr wrote:There is absolutely nothing wrong with a global government, in fact a global government is the ideal; provided that government is just and moral.
I disagree. I believe the ideal would be many just and moral governments. I don't see the benefit of granting a monopoly on governance. You eliminate the option of emigration if you don't like the governance of your current state. A global government, even if it was created as a moral ideal, would inexorably slide away from that ideal toward tyranny.
I concur. If you grant universal governance over all people, even with the best intensions, the ruler can only be a tyrant.
Riprion wrote:
Petyr wrote:The only reason we do not have 0-emission power plants today is the fact that our current form government has the power to regulate private industry.
Actually, I think the reason we don't have zero-emission power plants today is because coal is cheap as shit.
I think the reason we don’t have 0-emission power is because it is thermodynamically impossible at our current consumption rates. The energy we use today has accumulated over hundreds of thousands of years and for the most part it came from the sun. Sunlight reaches the earth with a relatively low power density, in watts per square meter. We can have sustainable power, but not as much power as we currently consume. Our future world will be very different from today.
Riprion wrote:An entity that doesn't exist cannot have rights. They are an idea, not a person. This is why I don't think a prior appropriations argument applies in this context.
As our legal system currently exists, I agree person that does not exist has no rights. To me this situation is a form of prior appropriation.

I was born before you, therefore if I can completely and totally consume a resource before you are born, then you are SOL.

Very similar to the water analogy. I have the first claim and completly use the water, no water for you. Just as the unborn person has no rights. The right of the “future owners” of adjoining parcels have no right either, because those parcels have not been granted. In the first analogy the competing owner does not exist, in the second the competing property does not exist.

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Mon Mar 02, 2009 6:52 pm
by Riprion
I don't buy your version of prior appropriation. I think it is very problematic to grant rights to non-entities or future entities. Nevermind that it is impossible to prove damages. You can speculate of course, but that would be reckless. Resources disappear all the time, there is no way anyone would be able to guarantee the existance of a resource for all time. This is the guarantee that you would have to grant in order to allow claims from non-existant future entities, because how far in the future would those rights extend. There simply isn't a valid line of demarcation except for the line between the present and the future.

Any other ideas on this subject?

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Mon Mar 02, 2009 8:46 pm
by musashi
Maybe I mis-spoke (wrote), but I don’t think it is possible (or moral) to grant rights under any hypothetical circumstances. Whether that would be granting hypothetical deeds; or rights to hypothetical owners. As I think about it, welfare falls into this category. The government is granting ownership of assets to people that did not earn by fair trade.

Where I was trying to get to is that, I believe government has a role in finite resource markets. Actually government has a role in all markets – they maintain the legal framework. Government sets and enforces the rules for trading. Government establishes the grant deeds to property.

The problem in my mind is that “today’s” government should not be allowed to grant the whole ball of wax at one time. And this is where governments can provide a service that free markets can not provide for themselves. I might call this service longitudinal market stabilization. I will add to this thought in a future post I am short on time.

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Tue Mar 03, 2009 6:47 pm
by Riprion
I can't agree that the government should have a roll in managing finite resources. I can't think of a resource that isn't technically finite. If it is your property, by what right can they prohibit you from fully using it? I dont know if I like the idea of the government "granting" the right to property instead of "recognizing" the right of property. The basis of natural rights is that those rights exist a priori and without the need for government fiat. Of course governments fail to recognize or violate these rights all the time. This doesn't mean that those rights don't exist. I consider the right to own private property one of those rights. This right does however get easily confused when discussing mining rights, and this is because much of the drilling and mining occurs on public land. This means that the miner doesn't own the actual land but merely has a claim on a resource. It has been in the governments interest to allow private parties to develop these resources fully even though they are publicly owned. In this instance, I would agree that the government has the right to control the depletion of its property. However, if a large reserve were to be found on privately owned land, that owner should be permitted to do whatever he wants with that resource. The government in that case has no right to control the output in order to preserve a resource for future generations.

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Tue Mar 03, 2009 8:44 pm
by musashi
Riprion wrote:I don’t know if I like the idea of the government "granting" the right to property instead of "recognizing" the right of property.
Whether you like it or not, the process of private property ownership by definition is initiated with government sanction. Governments claim sovereignty over a territory, and then somehow (most commonly through recognition of the deeds of prior governments or through new grants) the government puts property into private hands. From that point forward the property can be privately owned, and enjoy the specific rights the government associates with the property.

And easy way to see this in the US is to look at the record of your ownership for a property – they call it a grant deed. Some title searches on properties in places like Louisiana can show title changes passing though several different national governments (ie Spanish, French, English and finally US). Interesting stuff

The bundle of rights associated with property can vary widely between different governments; there really is not a common set of rules across the entire world. And again this goes back to the discreet sovereignty of the country in question, and their unique rule of law. So it really isn’t practical to assume a set of specific rights associated with property.

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Tue Mar 03, 2009 10:47 pm
by Riprion
Oh sorry, I was using the word property in the more general sense as in a thing that you possess. If you only mean land than I would agree with you because of the state's initial claim on sovereignty and initial deeding. However that would not limit a natural right to private property, property being the product of your body's labor, regardless of whether a country wants to recognize it or not. The right still exists.

Once the land had been deeded and passed into private hands, I would say that the owner should be able to do with it as they please. Of course there would have to be limits as I can envision alterations to the land that would damage neighboring parcels. But you would have to show actual quantifiable harm. But I'm not sure who the total extraction of a resource would harm under the "management for future generations argument".

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Wed Mar 04, 2009 8:04 am
by musashi
Riprion wrote:But you would have to show actual quantifiable harm. But I'm not sure who the total extraction of a resource would harm under the "management for future generations argument".
Umm…. Everyone?
Quantifiable harm is one of the hard questions. Just as markets and governments are inadequate at predicting future situations and needs, we haven’t found very good methods for predicting the outcome of present decisions.

Hippocrates confronted this dilemma a few years ago. He introduced the perspective, “first- do no harm.” In this context, it appears the free market position is not concerned with doing no harm. The market appears to be fundamentally focused on achieving equilibrium in the current moment. And from a purely free trade perspective any government intervention to lead the world to a more sustainable situation would have to be seen as harmful up front.

In a way this whole energy depletion problem is a bit like a cancer.
  • A cancer victim can decide to not get medical advice.

    A cancer patient can decide not follow the treatment advice of their doctors.

    A cancer patient can embrace medical treatment.
In all the cases above, the problem exists. In each the outcome is uncertain. In the analogy, I would say the free market alternative is the first category – liaise fair. Once we decide to intervene our decisions may be flawed, but the situation comes down to a risk / benefit choice. With cancer the choice is easier – one person ultimately decides and suffers the consequence.

With energy depletion lot of people decide; information is imperfect; and everyone is effected. I would classify governance much like medical treatment in the analogy above. And just as treatment is imperfect, government is too. It would appear that the meddling of government in issues like energy depletion is unwelcome.

But I ask, would you hold the same perspective about the meddling of medicine in the treatment of cancer?

Does our adherence to free-market thinking just cast us as a different flavor of Jehovah’s Witnesses? (Some readers may not know this but the Jehovah’s Witness does not accept medical treatments like blood transfusions.) The Witness has decided it is better to except a correctable life-threatening problem, than challenge their faith by fixing the problem – even if it means their imminent death. How are we free-market thinkers different?

Re: The Green Energy Fantasy: Green energy policies would hobble

Posted: Thu Mar 05, 2009 12:38 am
by Tolthar Lockbar
I'm not really answering specifics on this thread, but instead the gist of the topic.

A main carrier for disease (and just plain nastiness) in towns used to be horse poo. It was unfortunate, but at the same time, we have to ask: did it make life worse in the long run. The answer is obviously "no." Horses, through all the positives they added to life, increased our standard of living and life spans. You could say that the dung was "negative extranalities" but the positives out weighed it by a long shot.

Further, if people didn't like it, they moved. Take a free train ride on JJ Hill's passenger cars and build a farm.

But eventually someone could see long ranged enough to make the combustion engine, and another to put it into something like a car. But now we have pollution from factories and cars! Even in the smog, people lived longer lives than before they had cars (and definitely factories). While there is really no such thing as collective demonstrative harm (blaming all factory owners for all smog), one still had a choice: move away from the cities.

These negative consequences of good things were unfortunate, but the market eventually found solutions.

So now you might say that people now days wouldn't think that long ranged... but there is a reason for that. When the FDIC, FDA, FAA, and on and on and on, relieve responsibility that should be the business's, it is no wonder they stop thinking long range. When the best they can predict in the economy is a few years out, how can they be expected to take up something like serious research into a good energy alternative for profit?

(this is assuming there is a energy problem, which there isn't as global warming is a myth and we have actually gotten cooler in the last few years and there are tons more oil, oil shale, and oil sand)

Now that's just some concrete effects. What is the cause? You know it: the lack of a rational philosophy. Thanks to John Dewey and that dog Kant, America is a becoming a pragmatist nation. (Practical by what standard and for what end? <blank out>.) Pragmatism by its nature rejects the long range view, and instead goes for some short term goal only.

All that being said, we have to stick to fundamentals.

Man, by his nature, must use his mind to achieve anything (including renewable energy). If men couldn't think past a year, we wouldn't have an average life span of 70 something. If only the few exceptions could do long-term thinking, how would we be where we are today? Everything you have around you right now took some long-range look at life to come up with (unless you are on the toilet).

An elite directing the solution to our problem is not the answer. It never will be.

What I am telling you is this: if you want a solution to _any_ rational problem, there is only one way.. advocate the philosophy that allows people to live by their nature--and to think long ranged.

About some elite rising up and forcing upon us a "correct solution", I'll say this:

In a society that is corrupted to the point to where they can't think past their nose, how is one to rise in political power? The answer: by being corrupt. When political pull is the means of rising up, any "market solution" they put on the economy will not have a rational base. It will have a political solution... and then 200 political 'scientist' will sign it :P