The defeat of the ruling Fatah party to the militant terrorist group Hamas in this week's elections in Palestine has stunned foreign policy experts and dovish Foreign Ministries worldwide. Analysts and experts across the world had expected a marginal victory for the blatantly corrupt Fatah party, who has run the Palestinian Authority (PA) since its inception, over Hamas and other militant groups hoping to turn popular discontent into legislative seats.
"We just always thought that the Palestinians were simply a peace-loving but downtrodden people yearning to be free and share in the wonderful cultural diversity of the region,” an unnamed diplomat from the Norwegian Foreign Ministry was quoted saying. An official in the French Prime Minister’s office, asking not to be named, said that “Perhaps we shouldn’t have let Yassir Arafat have that mansion in Paris while his people were left to live in squalid refugee camps for three generations.”
It became apparent the organizational discipline of Hamas allowed it to take advantage of discontent with the corruption and poor leadership of Fatah and turn the Palestinian people against it. Younger members of Fatah had fought internally to change the ways of its old guard, but without success, in order to prevent the election disaster which had ensued. But ultimately many governments admit that, just maybe, the Palestinians are just simply insane barbarians.
“See, maybe now everyone will believe us, Jesus Christ,” said one Israeli spokesperson. “The Palestinians have clearly shown that they are not interested fighting a class war against American corporate imperialism, animal rights, genetically modified foods, economic protectionism, gay pride, or saving the environment by returning human civilization to pre-Industrial Revolution lifestyles like many rich western pseudo-hippies with too much time on their hands may previously have thought.”
“I guess now we should stop waving PA flags at WTO protests, it’s really bad PR to support a terrorist government these days,” one WTO protestor said after hearing the news that the Palestinians overwhelmingly elected a terrorist government which was in fact responsible for more individual terrorist acts than the Taliban and Al Qaeda combined.
The American government was left the most surprised. “I hope these people don’t think they mine sand dunes for the cash or something. This is taking that whole biting the hand that feeds them to an entirely new political. This is almost as bad as when we gave those small arms to the Vietnam in the 50s, or Yugoslavia in the 70s, and all those weapons to the Soviets during WWII, or those biological weapons to Iraq in the 80s,” said a White House aide who asked not to be named.
The United States gives over $400 million in aid yearly to keep the PA paying its bills and giving lavish estates to its leadership. However, now with Hamas in power it seems unlikely that aid will continue. Further aid benifits that are in question are over $600 million given by the European Union and $50 million by Israel yearly.
“Even if we wanted to keep supporting the Palestinian Authority, and we sorta do, we’re legally bound to not give aid to terrorist organizations. Of course, that didn’t stop us before the whole Iran/Contra thing, but after 9/11 you know how that would look? Forget about a Republican majority in Congress after 2006. Maybe we could play the ‘supporting a fledgling democracy’ angle. I mean, how many truly democratic terrorist governments are there? This is totally new ground for all of us,” a State Department official said.
To further complicate things, the FBI and Treasury Departments now have to clamp down on Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) running in the US that give support to the Palestinian Authority and further weakening Fatah and other groups within Palestine.
“I have three goats! Three! Hamas gives me money so I may feed my goats and so I have pleasure and milk every day with them. What has Fatah done for me but keep my family and I in these camps ever since those damn Jews bought all the land from us fair and square in the 30s,” a Palestinian goat-man said.
And that is the problem really. Fatah, being somewhat legitimate on the world stage primarily uses funds from western governments to maintain its finances. Hamas, however, having been branded a terrorist organization years ago gets its funds from nations such as Saudi Arabia and Iran. And as it has not had to deal with the overhead of governance, its funding goes primarily towards arming its militia and supporting the Palestinian people.
“The loyalty that Hamas has earned for fighting the perceived Zionist occupation along with its No Goat Left Behind campaign was a major factor in the election,” said a professor who studies the long-standing conflict.
“In the end, what do you do with an entire people who support terrorism and the slaughter of every individual Jewish man, woman, and child? We can’t just wipe them out, even though that’s anyone else would do. But since we’re the ‘evil Jews’ we just can’t risk the political fallout. We’d be sanctioned by the UN instantly, even though it happens all the time in Africa and even in Muslim totalitarian states. So, given our position, our strategy is to build a big wall around them and say fuck it,” an Israeli Defense Force General was quoted saying.
Fun: World Leaders Shocked Palestinians Voted for Terrorists
-
ForumAdmin
- Posts: 151
- Joined: Wed May 06, 2015 2:16 pm
The election results emphasize to me how profoundly ignorant the Palestinian people truly are. And of course this is not all their fault, coming from Bedouin tribes and kept in isolation for the past 60 years, the access to education must have been very limited.
The two alternatives each left much to be desired. In many ways, the situation was analogous to most of the impoverished nations I’ve learned about. Either support an entrenched corrupt governing party, or support ruthless and fanatical revolutionaries.
The rich twist for me is the Muslim inquisition and its influence on the process. Religion in many revolutions provides a calming effect, but these Mohammedans are so conservative, so fixated upon the literal interpretation of the Koran, they manage to feed the firestorm everyday. I would think at some point, a logical person would realize that the religion and its leaders are a key destructive element in the situation. I am beginning to dislike Muslims, almost as much as I do Communists and Socialists.
As a result of this free election, the Palestinians have secured greater poverty for themselves. They have created a great reason for the Israelis to bulldoze more houses.
You know being from plastic southern California; I’ve got an idea that might solve this mid-east crisis once and for all. When we want to build a new housing tract or a freeway and there is a mountain in the way we just scrape the top into the valley and make one big flat spot. Irregularities are sterilized, and the first thing built is a Starbucks. They should just bulldoze every single holy site, in the holy lands of all three religions. Auction Israel off to a multinational corporation and let them turn it into the world’s largest Club Med.
The two alternatives each left much to be desired. In many ways, the situation was analogous to most of the impoverished nations I’ve learned about. Either support an entrenched corrupt governing party, or support ruthless and fanatical revolutionaries.
The rich twist for me is the Muslim inquisition and its influence on the process. Religion in many revolutions provides a calming effect, but these Mohammedans are so conservative, so fixated upon the literal interpretation of the Koran, they manage to feed the firestorm everyday. I would think at some point, a logical person would realize that the religion and its leaders are a key destructive element in the situation. I am beginning to dislike Muslims, almost as much as I do Communists and Socialists.
As a result of this free election, the Palestinians have secured greater poverty for themselves. They have created a great reason for the Israelis to bulldoze more houses.
You know being from plastic southern California; I’ve got an idea that might solve this mid-east crisis once and for all. When we want to build a new housing tract or a freeway and there is a mountain in the way we just scrape the top into the valley and make one big flat spot. Irregularities are sterilized, and the first thing built is a Starbucks. They should just bulldoze every single holy site, in the holy lands of all three religions. Auction Israel off to a multinational corporation and let them turn it into the world’s largest Club Med.
Keep your sharpened steel sword, this wooden one will be all I need!
-
ForumAdmin
- Posts: 151
- Joined: Wed May 06, 2015 2:16 pm
I have nothing against Muslims per se, at least the intellectuals. Those who understand where Islam could be in the world seem to be very enlightened on how it seems to be heading in the exact opposite direction.
Given its populace and broad unique culture it would be very easy for Islam to create an alternative modern culture to the predominant Judeo-Christian west.
However, there's a difference. Judeo-Christian culture's guiding religious book, The Bible and Torah (and various other works of Jewish literature), are all broad based guides. Those of Orthodox Judaism and stricter groupings of Judaism are the only ones who have really codified rules to live by that have any historical relevance or credibility. Christianity in particular is easy to shape into whatever you want it to be by the inherent vaugarities of the Bible.
Islam does not have that problem. The Koran, firstly, is pure. It is read exactly now as it was when Muhammad wrote (or transcripted) it. Translations are broadly considered irrelevant and not studied. The same is true to some extent in Judaism as well, but the integration of American and European Jewery into Christian society has caused knowledge of Hebrew to go into decline.
Secondly, no Jewish or Christian holy book claims to be the exact word for word transcription of god's message to man. They may claim to quote god, but even then they are not considered to be word for word transcriptions of what he said by any sort of long shot. Thus, you have much room for interpretation. While from a religious perspective one may look at this as a strength for Islam, from an integration and cooperation standpoint it leaves any Muslim who may want to be devout in a very difficult position. Going in the face of a written rule which you believe was written by god himself is not the same as backing away from the culturally accepted interpretation of the decade.
Such rules as burqa wearing are cultural and not religiously mandated, of course. Terrorism is of course another very very tenuous and strict interpreation of a handful of Koranic passages which seem to have taken on a life of their own. These are things that can change.
The hump that Christianity had to get over to move onto the modern society it is now was far less than the one Islam will have to overcome for this reason. Consider yourself in the Islamic Dark Age.
Islam's biggest problem really isn't its book though, it is of course its culture. It is extraordinarily prideful and that makes compromise or resolution incredibly difficult with the United States being the one you would have to do this with. Deep seated pride in ones self and society are rare traits in the US (as one can see from our stunning obesity levels) so I do not really expect many people to completely understand this. However, I'm sure those Europeans from smaller nations (Austria/Belgium/Netherlands) will be very quick to give you a very long description on what it means to stand your ground in the face of adversity (English language predominance, for example) for pride despite logical reason. Logical reason would state that the earth returning to a Tower of Babel situation would be great for world peace, communications, cultural exchange, etc. However, language is critical and a very deep part of a culture. This is one of the many issues facing an Islamic culture either used to being the #1 or fighting it.
I assume things will get worse before they get better.
Given its populace and broad unique culture it would be very easy for Islam to create an alternative modern culture to the predominant Judeo-Christian west.
However, there's a difference. Judeo-Christian culture's guiding religious book, The Bible and Torah (and various other works of Jewish literature), are all broad based guides. Those of Orthodox Judaism and stricter groupings of Judaism are the only ones who have really codified rules to live by that have any historical relevance or credibility. Christianity in particular is easy to shape into whatever you want it to be by the inherent vaugarities of the Bible.
Islam does not have that problem. The Koran, firstly, is pure. It is read exactly now as it was when Muhammad wrote (or transcripted) it. Translations are broadly considered irrelevant and not studied. The same is true to some extent in Judaism as well, but the integration of American and European Jewery into Christian society has caused knowledge of Hebrew to go into decline.
Secondly, no Jewish or Christian holy book claims to be the exact word for word transcription of god's message to man. They may claim to quote god, but even then they are not considered to be word for word transcriptions of what he said by any sort of long shot. Thus, you have much room for interpretation. While from a religious perspective one may look at this as a strength for Islam, from an integration and cooperation standpoint it leaves any Muslim who may want to be devout in a very difficult position. Going in the face of a written rule which you believe was written by god himself is not the same as backing away from the culturally accepted interpretation of the decade.
Such rules as burqa wearing are cultural and not religiously mandated, of course. Terrorism is of course another very very tenuous and strict interpreation of a handful of Koranic passages which seem to have taken on a life of their own. These are things that can change.
The hump that Christianity had to get over to move onto the modern society it is now was far less than the one Islam will have to overcome for this reason. Consider yourself in the Islamic Dark Age.
Islam's biggest problem really isn't its book though, it is of course its culture. It is extraordinarily prideful and that makes compromise or resolution incredibly difficult with the United States being the one you would have to do this with. Deep seated pride in ones self and society are rare traits in the US (as one can see from our stunning obesity levels) so I do not really expect many people to completely understand this. However, I'm sure those Europeans from smaller nations (Austria/Belgium/Netherlands) will be very quick to give you a very long description on what it means to stand your ground in the face of adversity (English language predominance, for example) for pride despite logical reason. Logical reason would state that the earth returning to a Tower of Babel situation would be great for world peace, communications, cultural exchange, etc. However, language is critical and a very deep part of a culture. This is one of the many issues facing an Islamic culture either used to being the #1 or fighting it.
I assume things will get worse before they get better.
Great post Yosh, very insightful observation about the influence of fixed texts upon the three religions. These books have given the big religions continuity through the ages. But the books have also created confusion in the interpretation in the rearranged context of each new age. To me the issue for the Koran seems to be translation.
Not that the Koran has translation issues, because it was written in the same Arabic it can be read in to today, but the lack of translation. The Bible has been translated so many times through at least four languages; it is easy to distance yourself for the literal word. It is this possibility of inaccuracy that throws water on the fire of zealotry.
As opposed as the Muslims are to Judaism, I believe Judaism holds one of keys for Muslim reform. Judaism had a similar crisis of scriptural interpretation (Torah). A bunch of religious leaders addressed the confusion with a rulebook, Talmud, to help minimize misunderstandings. The Tulmud is a zany read, again it is set in a distant context. Ultimately the modern Jewish community had to reform away from strict adherence to even Talmud. Here again we see translation, not of language but through culture. But for centuries Arabic cultures have resisted modernization. Fine Ali! No problem give me the TV, cell phone and penicillin back and ride your camel off into the sunset.
The big issue for Muslims is the lack of detachment. The strict adherence to not only the Koran, but also to custom. I mean really, for decades now a bunch of “spiritually enlightened” pilgrims have trampled hundreds of their compatriots to death just for the opportunity to throw a rock at a wall. What is that!?? To me the uproar about Danish cartoon strip is a great example. Some dude in the Middle East is more concerned about the funny pages on the other side of the world, than in serious reform of his own religion.
Not that the Koran has translation issues, because it was written in the same Arabic it can be read in to today, but the lack of translation. The Bible has been translated so many times through at least four languages; it is easy to distance yourself for the literal word. It is this possibility of inaccuracy that throws water on the fire of zealotry.
As opposed as the Muslims are to Judaism, I believe Judaism holds one of keys for Muslim reform. Judaism had a similar crisis of scriptural interpretation (Torah). A bunch of religious leaders addressed the confusion with a rulebook, Talmud, to help minimize misunderstandings. The Tulmud is a zany read, again it is set in a distant context. Ultimately the modern Jewish community had to reform away from strict adherence to even Talmud. Here again we see translation, not of language but through culture. But for centuries Arabic cultures have resisted modernization. Fine Ali! No problem give me the TV, cell phone and penicillin back and ride your camel off into the sunset.
The big issue for Muslims is the lack of detachment. The strict adherence to not only the Koran, but also to custom. I mean really, for decades now a bunch of “spiritually enlightened” pilgrims have trampled hundreds of their compatriots to death just for the opportunity to throw a rock at a wall. What is that!?? To me the uproar about Danish cartoon strip is a great example. Some dude in the Middle East is more concerned about the funny pages on the other side of the world, than in serious reform of his own religion.
The sad reality of this truth is that many people will be killed to bring Islam out of the darkness. And for what? To perpetuate more mythology? Which is why I’ve come to view all religion as both a support for the insecure masses, and as a vehicle to be corrupted and abused to control the masses.Yoshokun Shinzuku wrote:Consider yourself in the Islamic Dark Age.
Last edited by musashi on Wed Jun 28, 2006 12:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
Keep your sharpened steel sword, this wooden one will be all I need!
-
ForumAdmin
- Posts: 151
- Joined: Wed May 06, 2015 2:16 pm
I have no desire revolutionize the world. The world doesn't want to be revolutionized, it will change on its own slowly with time. Maybe not within my lifetime, but eventually.
As for Judaism, my wife was raised Orthodox (she is no longer) and so my views of the various groupings of Judaism tend to be slanted against the Reform and Conservative movements (not to mention the more out there ones). I respect Orthodoxy's attempt to maintain a pure faith, even though it still doesn't integrate well. But then a pure faith that's thousands of years old can't be expected to adapt well.
Ultimately all I want is my privatized Social Security. Screw the rest of the US, if you're too stupid to invest wisely then that's your problem. I, however, could actually take advantage of those funds and make them worth something. That's assuming I'll at least get my cash back dollar for dollar. At the rate things are going in Congress though, I probably won't.
[edited] I want my money.
As for Judaism, my wife was raised Orthodox (she is no longer) and so my views of the various groupings of Judaism tend to be slanted against the Reform and Conservative movements (not to mention the more out there ones). I respect Orthodoxy's attempt to maintain a pure faith, even though it still doesn't integrate well. But then a pure faith that's thousands of years old can't be expected to adapt well.
Ultimately all I want is my privatized Social Security. Screw the rest of the US, if you're too stupid to invest wisely then that's your problem. I, however, could actually take advantage of those funds and make them worth something. That's assuming I'll at least get my cash back dollar for dollar. At the rate things are going in Congress though, I probably won't.
[edited] I want my money.
Signed. Yosh, it’s OK to express a negative opinion, hopefully well reasoned. The forums live on beyond the emotions we feel during our composition. We need to avoid blatant slurs.
Might I suggest a slight edit? The comment really isn’t integral to your thesis.
Might I suggest a slight edit? The comment really isn’t integral to your thesis.
Keep your sharpened steel sword, this wooden one will be all I need!
-
ForumAdmin
- Posts: 151
- Joined: Wed May 06, 2015 2:16 pm
Agreed, it was unnecessary. Even I get to have my rants occasionally, and if I frequented the forum enough I would have edited it myself earlier.
To continue with the discussion, I was pondering on Bush's Union address. I find it terribly ironic that Bush's insane obsession with spreading democracy (no matter how genuine) is backfiring.
It's all well and good to blame a geopolitical situation on a ruling elite and take them out, but what happens when democracy does take its course and it's even worse? You can't just kill the Palestinian people as a whole.
History tells us that no democracy has ever fought a war with another democracy. Yay, that's just changed. Of course, democracy's only really been around for less than 100 years, so it's still pretty new. But the idea of no democracy ever wanting to fight another one I guess assumed that in order to have democracy you had to have economic and political stability. For what it's worth the Palestinians have managed to successfully embark upon the democratic process under far more dire circumstances than many other developing nations. Whether or not that's a testament to the Palestinians political maturity or to the insane about of international monitoring is to be seen. I assume the latter.
This may turn out to be better, though. Hamas now has power and so that makes their profile and organization much easier the target. In addition it allows Israeli policy time to breathe while it recovers from the loss of Sharon. With no clear head and no clear vision (Sharon was wise in keeping his vision exclusively to himself for the most part) business as usual for Israel would have meant potentially making bad decisions. Now they can sit this one out and wait for Hamas to turn itself around (unlikely) or screw up, allowing it to react in ways that do not require grand policy planning. For the time being I guess Israel will be in short-term decision mode until things settle down.
In addition for Israel and the US now the true intentions of the Palestinians is undeniable. No one can claim any sort of peaceful intentions from Palestine so long as Hamas maintains its current platform. On the other hand, it also makes it far easier for Palestine to moderate itself and become a peace partner as its position is now so extraordinarily against the norm.
I doubt we'll see full blown war in the West Bank over this, at least with Israel. I guess we'll see how the various Palestinian groups take to having Hamas in charge with their militias having the blessing of the PA.
In other news, looks like unless Iran gets its shit together and the Russians knock some sense into them that we may have another war on our hands. I'm trying to decide if that's bad or not still, given the present state of the world. At least this one will be for real WMD. =)
If you take a step back and look at our time and try to imagine how people will look back 100 years from now on us, going to war with Iran actually makes more sense. More could be achieved towards reorganizing the balance of power in 2 years and 5,000 American deaths than decades of diplomacy. Would it be ugly and hard? Oh yeah, it would make Iraq look like a picnic, but despite what the news may say, the DoD is capable of it (the AF at least is not stretched by a longshot - we're still overmanned and now slowly being trained to do the Army's job when we have to). Also, if we did do Iran, it would be with a lot of European countries behind us, which makes things all the easier. If we invade Iran, it will not be an American war, but instead probably look more like the coalition we put together for Desert Storm.
I've been looking forward to touring scenic Mesopotamia, but now Persia too! Nice. =) Kuwait needs to build some more carpet stores quick before all the foreigners are done passing through.
To continue with the discussion, I was pondering on Bush's Union address. I find it terribly ironic that Bush's insane obsession with spreading democracy (no matter how genuine) is backfiring.
It's all well and good to blame a geopolitical situation on a ruling elite and take them out, but what happens when democracy does take its course and it's even worse? You can't just kill the Palestinian people as a whole.
History tells us that no democracy has ever fought a war with another democracy. Yay, that's just changed. Of course, democracy's only really been around for less than 100 years, so it's still pretty new. But the idea of no democracy ever wanting to fight another one I guess assumed that in order to have democracy you had to have economic and political stability. For what it's worth the Palestinians have managed to successfully embark upon the democratic process under far more dire circumstances than many other developing nations. Whether or not that's a testament to the Palestinians political maturity or to the insane about of international monitoring is to be seen. I assume the latter.
This may turn out to be better, though. Hamas now has power and so that makes their profile and organization much easier the target. In addition it allows Israeli policy time to breathe while it recovers from the loss of Sharon. With no clear head and no clear vision (Sharon was wise in keeping his vision exclusively to himself for the most part) business as usual for Israel would have meant potentially making bad decisions. Now they can sit this one out and wait for Hamas to turn itself around (unlikely) or screw up, allowing it to react in ways that do not require grand policy planning. For the time being I guess Israel will be in short-term decision mode until things settle down.
In addition for Israel and the US now the true intentions of the Palestinians is undeniable. No one can claim any sort of peaceful intentions from Palestine so long as Hamas maintains its current platform. On the other hand, it also makes it far easier for Palestine to moderate itself and become a peace partner as its position is now so extraordinarily against the norm.
I doubt we'll see full blown war in the West Bank over this, at least with Israel. I guess we'll see how the various Palestinian groups take to having Hamas in charge with their militias having the blessing of the PA.
In other news, looks like unless Iran gets its shit together and the Russians knock some sense into them that we may have another war on our hands. I'm trying to decide if that's bad or not still, given the present state of the world. At least this one will be for real WMD. =)
If you take a step back and look at our time and try to imagine how people will look back 100 years from now on us, going to war with Iran actually makes more sense. More could be achieved towards reorganizing the balance of power in 2 years and 5,000 American deaths than decades of diplomacy. Would it be ugly and hard? Oh yeah, it would make Iraq look like a picnic, but despite what the news may say, the DoD is capable of it (the AF at least is not stretched by a longshot - we're still overmanned and now slowly being trained to do the Army's job when we have to). Also, if we did do Iran, it would be with a lot of European countries behind us, which makes things all the easier. If we invade Iran, it will not be an American war, but instead probably look more like the coalition we put together for Desert Storm.
I've been looking forward to touring scenic Mesopotamia, but now Persia too! Nice. =) Kuwait needs to build some more carpet stores quick before all the foreigners are done passing through.
Sorta sad that it is 5 months to the day, since the Palestinians elected Humas by a landslide to be their representative government. I remember the images of idiots discharging automatic rifles and setting community building on fire in celebration.
The past months brought international ostracism, and an almost total economic blockade. All the while the Humas leadership has refused to recognize Israel, nor demonstrate overtures of peace. Now some radical group of Palestinians have killed a few soldiers and kidnapped another. Israel has all the necessary justification to wage open war on the Palestinian populace. Bull dozing house after house until, they find their guy.
It seems every action the Palestinians take is intended to deepen their own suffering. If this was a single person, I could say they are acting irrationally. What do you say when the MAJORITY of the population chooses to harm themselves?
The past months brought international ostracism, and an almost total economic blockade. All the while the Humas leadership has refused to recognize Israel, nor demonstrate overtures of peace. Now some radical group of Palestinians have killed a few soldiers and kidnapped another. Israel has all the necessary justification to wage open war on the Palestinian populace. Bull dozing house after house until, they find their guy.
It seems every action the Palestinians take is intended to deepen their own suffering. If this was a single person, I could say they are acting irrationally. What do you say when the MAJORITY of the population chooses to harm themselves?
Keep your sharpened steel sword, this wooden one will be all I need!
-
ForumAdmin
- Posts: 151
- Joined: Wed May 06, 2015 2:16 pm
If you haven't noticed everyone's forgotten about Israel lately. News that should have been bombshell world shattering news (Israel officially announcing it was going to combine all of the small West Bank settlements into one mega-settlement/extention of East Jerusalem in the West Bank) barely made a ripple.
There are just too many real issues. North Korea being the biggest. This Iran hoohaa needs to end. The Europeans have a high vested interest in this problem going away properly w/o violence. I trust them to achieve it.
Things with Korea are going to get a lot worse once the current South Korean govt gets kicked out. The Korean people finally seem to be coming around from being anti-American North Korean apologists and realize that North Korea, low and behold, may not be in it for the glorious rise of the Korean people in a unified peninsula. The South Korean govt spends more time trying to battle with the US over its hardline policy against NK than trying to fix NK. This, obviously, is getting them no where. The next govt will start expecting real results. The big question is when NK is pushed into a real corner.
The situation is becoming much worse because of China. It can't use its power, else NK ignores it (to its own detrement), but if it doesn't, then they're marginalized. Either way, China stops being a power broker, the latter just takes longer. Plus, the NK/China border is insanely open. China doesn't want millions of North Koreans spilling into China if NK destabilizes.
China's trying to fight this all of this right now, but it's not possible unless something amazing happens in Korea that involves NK capitulation and insanely slow modernization. That is something I'm less confident in happening.
There are just too many real issues. North Korea being the biggest. This Iran hoohaa needs to end. The Europeans have a high vested interest in this problem going away properly w/o violence. I trust them to achieve it.
Things with Korea are going to get a lot worse once the current South Korean govt gets kicked out. The Korean people finally seem to be coming around from being anti-American North Korean apologists and realize that North Korea, low and behold, may not be in it for the glorious rise of the Korean people in a unified peninsula. The South Korean govt spends more time trying to battle with the US over its hardline policy against NK than trying to fix NK. This, obviously, is getting them no where. The next govt will start expecting real results. The big question is when NK is pushed into a real corner.
The situation is becoming much worse because of China. It can't use its power, else NK ignores it (to its own detrement), but if it doesn't, then they're marginalized. Either way, China stops being a power broker, the latter just takes longer. Plus, the NK/China border is insanely open. China doesn't want millions of North Koreans spilling into China if NK destabilizes.
China's trying to fight this all of this right now, but it's not possible unless something amazing happens in Korea that involves NK capitulation and insanely slow modernization. That is something I'm less confident in happening.